Ghaziabad: Shazia Ilmi a Lok Sabha candidate on AAP ticket from Ghaziabad seems to be in leading position with slight margin of 10,000 votes. Opinion poll conducted on local people belonging to different casts in the constituency. As per the opinion poll around 57% votes foretasted in the constituency. There seems tough competition between AAP and BSP and leaving BJP at third position.
AAP's candidate Ms Ilmi is expected to win with a slight margin of around 10000 votes where BJP is at third with a margin of around 33000 votes. Ghaziabad being AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal's home constituency will benefits the party. Per previous report BJP president Rajnath chose not to contest from Ghaziabad as he wanted to fight from a safe seat.
Raw data of the analysis based on casts described below. Total votes 22 lak and 80 thousands.
| Ghaziabad | 2280000 | Actual Votes | AAP | INC | BSP | BJP | SP | Other |
| Muslims | 342000 | 241522 | 105760 | 31122 | 30910 | 4788 | 71820 | 2122 |
| Thakur | 148200 | 75123 | 7410 | 14820 | 7410 | 22230 | 22230 | 1023 |
| Brahim | 148200 | 59893 | 5928 | 5928 | 35568 | 35910 | 11970 | 613 |
| Jats | 98040 | 70901 | 3500 | 35000 | 3500 | 21000 | 7000 | 901 |
| Tyagi | 173280 | 121812 | 24200 | 24200 | 12100 | 54450 | 11970 | 812 |
| Vaishya | 148200 | 89222 | 53352 | 8892 | 8892 | 8892 | 8892 | 302 |
| SC | 248520 | 175290 | 17300 | 8650 | 128020 | 8650 | 10380 | 2090 |
| Others | 973560 | 498780 | 121695 | 48678 | 97356 | 146034 | 73017 | 12000 |
| Total | 2280000 | 1332515 | 334145 | 177290 | 323756 | 301954 | 217279 | 20035 |
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